AppLovin Corp (NASDAQ:APP) shares climbed 6.7% on Monday after Wells Fargo analyst Alec Brondolo raised his price target on the company to $560 from $543 while keeping an Overweight rating.
Brondolo pointed to improving industry checks and persistent negative buy-side sentiment, which he said combine to create a favorable setup heading into AppLovin’s first quarter earnings report. The analyst increased his revenue estimates for the period covering the first quarter through 2026 by 3%, leaving his projection roughly 3% above consensus and aligned with the high end of company guidance, driven in part by robust mobile game checks.
In the analyst’s words: "Checks suggest 1Q IAA industry growth above normal seasonality, APP holding share & META progress limited. New Discovery campaigns improving eComm advertiser sentiment." He added that industry checks point to first-quarter mobile game IAA revenues trending better than seasonal patterns - noting that first quarters are generally down low-single-digits while the first quarter of 2026 is about flat quarter-over-quarter. Brondolo also highlighted that AppLovin’s share of voice in IAA inventory is approximately flat year-over-year even as META’s first-quarter share increased to roughly 13-14% from about 11% in the fourth quarter.
Wells Fargo now models first-quarter revenue for AppLovin at $1.82 billion, which represents about 10% growth sequentially. The firm’s estimate for the company’s e-commerce revenue component remains at $235 million, up from $222 million in the fourth quarter, though Brondolo noted that growth from new advertisers has yet to show a clear inflection.
AppLovin shares have nonetheless suffered a significant decline earlier in the year, dropping roughly 40% year-to-date in 2026. The stock’s retreat has coincided with market concerns about potential AI-driven disruption in ad technology, a January short-seller report alleging connections between a major shareholder and money laundering, and continued scrutiny from the SEC into the company’s data-collection practices.
Market participants will be watching AppLovin’s upcoming earnings for confirmation of the checks cited by Wells Fargo and for signs that e-commerce advertiser momentum and mobile game revenue trends are sustaining the firm’s revised outlook.
Summary
Wells Fargo raised its AppLovin price target to $560 and lifted revenue estimates after industry checks suggested stronger-than-typical first-quarter IAA growth, solid mobile game performance, and improving e-commerce advertiser sentiment; the stock rose 6.7% amid these revisions but remains down about 40% year-to-date amid several headwinds.