Applied Optoelectronics shares rose 2% on Friday after Citron Research announced it had taken a short position in the company. The research note contrasted Applied Optoelectronics with other suppliers in the optical components market and leveled several valuation and risk criticisms.
Citron pointed out that Applied Optoelectronics’ share price had climbed from $85 two weeks earlier to $140, and said that rally added roughly $3.5 billion in market capitalization after a press release. The firm flagged what it views as a sharp disconnect between the price action and underlying financial measures.
At the center of Citron’s critique is valuation. The firm said Applied Optoelectronics is trading at 112 times forward earnings. Citron compared that multiple to the peak multiples of Nvidia, saying the company’s multiple is nearly three times Nvidia’s peak. The research note also contrasted gross margins, citing 31% for Applied Optoelectronics versus Nvidia’s 75% at its own peak.
Citron further noted that Nvidia, during the height of AI enthusiasm, reached a peak of 40 times forward earnings while generating $200 billion in annual profits. The comparison is used to underscore Citron’s view that Applied Optoelectronics’ multiple is disproportionate relative to its margin profile.
The research firm also emphasized customer-concentration differences between peers. Citron described Lumentum’s anchor customer as Nvidia, and noted Nvidia invested $2 billion directly into that supplier and has bookings through 2028. By contrast, Citron identified Applied Optoelectronics’ anchor customer as Oracle, which the firm characterized as carrying $100 billion in debt and having negative free cash flow.
On target pricing, Citron wrote that Applied Optoelectronics should trade back to $85, a level the firm observed would nevertheless remain above consensus estimates. In terms of positioning across the supply chain, Citron said it is long Corning, calling the company the fiber backbone for hyperscalers, and said it respects Lumentum as Nvidia’s chosen partner on the basis of profits and backlog.
Citron summarized its stance on the trio of names by labeling Corning as reasonable, Lumentum as expensive, and Applied Optoelectronics as delusional. The firm cited what it described as commodity hardware margins combined with heavy capital expenditures, dependence on a single large customer, and zero pricing power as key reasons for its short position.
The market response to Citron’s announcement was limited to the initial price movement noted above. Observers and market participants will likely watch future trading and any company responses for further developments.