White House economists conclude the United States faces a deficit of at least 10 million single-family homes, according to the latest annual Economic Report of the President prepared by the Council of Economic Advisers.
The report frames the shortage as the difference between the number of single-family homes that exist today and the number that would have been built if homebuilding and the growth of the single-family housing stock had continued at their historical pace rather than falling after 2008. Using that counterfactual, the report finds 10 million or more additional single-family homes would exist now.
That figure is larger than estimates recently published by other well-known organizations. Freddie Mac, the government-controlled mortgage financier, said in November 2024 that the U.S. was short about 3.7 million housing units relative to needs tied to a growing population. The National Association of Realtors provided an earlier estimate in June 2021, placing the shortfall at 5.5 million units by comparing trends over the previous 20 years with construction rates from 1968 to 2000.
The Council of Economic Advisers’ approach explicitly uses the post-2008 slowdown in single-family construction as the counterfactual pivot point. The report does not provide an alternative calculation based on other baselines in the passages cited here, but it presents the 10 million-plus figure as the result of that particular historical comparison.
These differing estimates reflect variation in methodology and the reference periods used to assess what the housing stock would look like absent the decline in building activity after 2008. The report from the Council of Economic Advisers highlights one specific historical benchmark and the implied cumulative shortfall when construction did not resume at its prior rate.
Readers should note the published numbers cited here reflect the specific methodologies reported by each organization - the Council of Economic Advisers, Freddie Mac, and the National Association of Realtors - and no additional projections or implications are offered beyond those reported estimates.
Summary
The Council of Economic Advisers in the Economic Report of the President estimates the U.S. is missing at least 10 million single-family homes compared with a scenario in which construction continued at pre-2008 rates. This estimate exceeds Freddie Mac's November 2024 estimate of a 3.7 million-unit shortfall and the National Association of Realtors' June 2021 estimate of 5.5 million units.