March 24 - U.S. consumer spending associated with Easter is forecast to reach a record $24.9 billion in 2026, marking a 5.5% increase from the prior year, the National Retail Federation reported on Tuesday. The projection, if realized, would exceed the previous peak of $24.0 billion recorded in 2023.
The NRF expects the average amount budgeted per shopper to rise as well. On a per-person basis, consumers are projected to plan $195.59 for Easter this year, topping the earlier record of $192.01 set in 2023.
NRF Chief Economist Mark Mathews summarized consumer behavior succinctly: "While economic uncertainty remains on the minds of many, consumers are still focused on holiday celebrations like Easter." That tension - between concern about broader economic conditions and a willingness to spend on seasonal events - is central to the group's outlook.
The forecast identifies candy as the most widely purchased Easter item, with the NRF noting that 92% of consumers plan to buy sweets. The trade group also highlighted the role of the shopping experience in shaping purchases. Phil Rist, an executive at NRF Prosper Insights & Analytics, said shoppers would be influenced by factors such as sales and promotions and engaging in-store displays.
The NRF based its headline forecast on a consumer survey of 7,845 adult respondents conducted alongside research firm Prosper Insights & Analytics. The survey underpins the association's estimates of aggregate and per-capita spending for the holiday.
Taken together, the numbers point to elevated seasonal demand at the start of the spring retail calendar, with confectionery sales and promotional merchandising cited as primary drivers. The projection underscores how holiday-specific categories and in-store experiences continue to affect consumer budgets even amid lingering economic uncertainty.