Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,672 total articles
The Bank of France reported a firmer-than-expected rebound in activity at the start of the year and estimated GDP growth of 0.2-0.3% for the first quarter following a 0.2% expansion in the previous three months. Business sentiment across industry, services and construction improved entering February, with industrial output strengthening in January,…
Members of the Bank of Canada’s Governing Council said threats to the independence of the U.S. Federal Reserve, together with rising geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policy, have intensified global uncertainty. The council’s January meeting deliberations, released on Wednesday, noted risks to supply chains, inflation and economic activity a…
Citi shifted its forecast for the Federal Reserve's initial rate reduction from March to May after U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 in January, well above expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 4.3% from 4.4%, and Citi analysts led by Veronica Clark say there will likely not be enough evidence of labor-market weakening before the March FO…
Following a cumulative three-quarter percentage point easing in 2025, Federal Reserve policymakers left the policy rate unchanged in January. Officials are publicly divided into dovish and hawkish camps based on recent remarks: some emphasize labor market risks and favor quicker cuts, while others stress inflationary upside and urge caution. A runn…
The Congressional Budget Office has increased its 10-year deficit projection by $1.4 trillion, pointing to the administration's 2025 tax law and immigration enforcement actions as principal drivers. While higher import duties are expected to trim deficits, surging interest payments from larger debt and higher rates will intensify budgetary pressure…
The International Monetary Fund is urging South Africa to replace its softer spending ceilings with a more explicit, enforceable debt rule. Despite modest recent gains in governance and a recent credit upgrade, the IMF warns current measures have failed to halt a long-term rise in public debt and recommends a formal framework with spending limits, …
Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid told an economic forum in Albuquerque that the Fed should keep monetary policy tight because inflation remains close to 3% and demand appears to be outpacing supply. He expressed caution about relying on productivity gains or artificial intelligence as immediate fixes and warned that cutting rate…
Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid told an economic forum in Albuquerque that the central bank should maintain restrictive policy for now because demand appears to be outpacing supply across much of the U.S. economy. He cautioned that recent productivity gains - and hopes that artificial intelligence will lift potential output - a…
The Congressional Budget Office projects the U.S. fiscal 2026 deficit will reach $1.853 trillion, about 5.8% of GDP, and warns of a decade-long average deficit-to-GDP ratio of 6.1%. The CBO’s outlook relies on weaker growth assumptions than the administration’s and attributes sustained deficits to recent tax and spending legislation, changes to imm…
Bank of Mexico Deputy Jonathan Heath said he doubts the central bank's recent projection that inflation will fall to its 3% target in the second quarter of 2027. Heath warned that the bank could be relying on overly optimistic forecasts, underestimating structural inflation pressures and risking premature monetary easing, even as official data show…
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January and the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4% in December, surpassing economists' median forecast of a 70,000 gain. The report lifted stock futures, pushed the 10-year Treasury yield higher and nudged the dollar up, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold policy stea…
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reduced its estimate of jobs created in the 12 months through March 2025 by 862,000, revising down the seasonally adjusted change in total nonfarm employment for 2025 to 181,000 from 584,000. The benchmark revision, based on updated Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages data for the first quarter, was smaller …
U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000 in January while the unemployment rate slipped to 4.3% from 4.4% in December. The stronger-than-expected report reflected unusually low seasonal hiring during the holidays that reduced January layoffs, a delayed release tied to a short federal shutdown, and an updated birth-and-death model at the Bureau of Labo…
European Union heads of state and government will convene in Belgium on February 12 for a competitiveness summit aimed at tackling sluggish productivity and external dependencies. The meeting is expected to map out a political consensus on the broad direction of economic policy rather than adopt concrete laws, with formal decisions deferred to the …
President Donald Trump has privately explored the option of withdrawing from the United States-Mexico-Canada trade agreement he ratified in his first term, according to people familiar with internal White House discussions. Administration officials say they are weighing several courses of action while pursuing renegotiation on outstanding issues ah…
Bank of America increased its growth outlook for Germany, projecting GDP of 1.0% in 2026 and 1.7% in 2027, citing a significant fiscal impulse concentrated in 2026. Economists at the bank characterize the boost as a fiscal 'sugar rush,' driven largely by government spending rather than investment, and expect growth to decelerate below 1% annualized…
Poland's Monthly Business Climate Index (MIK) declined to 98.0 in February, moving below the neutral 100 mark after four months above that level. The Polish Economic Institute attributed the drop to weaker sales, new orders, production capacity and investment, while labour market indicators remained stable and large firms showed early signs of inve…
A survey of economists conducted Feb. 5-10 finds most expect the Federal Reserve to keep its policy rate unchanged through the end of Jerome Powell's tenure in May, with a rate cut projected in June. Respondents expressed worry that Kevin Warsh, the likely next Fed chair, would err on the side of easing, and many signaled anxiety about a weakening …
U.S. stock futures showed little direction ahead of a delayed January jobs report, with market attention split between incoming labor data, quarterly corporate earnings and evolving expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. Tariff-related policy moves and recent sector-specific earnings swings added to the backdrop of uncertainty.
A recently implemented income tax exemption for monthly wages up to 5,000 reais has sharply reduced the number of Brazilians paying income tax, injecting discretionary cash into lower- and middle-income households. That boost to consumption and a favourable economic backdrop - record-low unemployment, record-high median wages and cooling food infla…
India has declined to relax its 2019 ban on e-cigarettes and related products, reaffirming that heat-not-burn tobacco devices remain prohibited. Private correspondence and meetings show Philip Morris International mounted a sustained lobbying effort from 2021 to 2025 to persuade Indian authorities to reassess the ban and consider regulated use of h…
U.S. equity futures ticked up as traders awaited a delayed U.S. jobs report that could shape Federal Reserve policy prospects. Ford disclosed a $900 million charge tied to an unexpected postponement of tariff relief, even as its forward guidance beat estimates. Activist investor moves in the Warner Bros. Discovery takeover contest and mixed commodi…
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said the EU must simplify rules that govern companies operating in the bloc to improve competitiveness with the United States and China. In a speech to the European Parliament, she highlighted the structural fragmentation of Europe's financial system and proposed that leaders endorse a single marke…
Greece’s macroeconomic indicators point to a robust recovery, but a sharp rise in rents is leaving many households unable to keep pace. A shortage of available housing, sales to foreign buyers and the conversion of units into short-term tourist rentals have constricted supply in major cities. The result: mounting displacement, reduced household con…
The State Bank of Pakistan has lifted its forecast for fiscal 2026 growth to a 3.75-4.75% range, with governor Jameel Ahmad arguing that recovery across agriculture, industry and services is broader and more durable than recent export figures imply. The bank highlights substantial policy easing since June 2024, solid large-scale manufacturing growt…
