Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,685 total articles
The U.S. Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision authored by Chief Justice John Roberts, found that the president exceeded his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose broad tariffs on imports. The ruling affirms lower court decisions brought by businesses and a coalition of 12 states, and leaves open the admini…
Core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation excluding food and energy climbed 0.4% in December after a 0.2% rise in November, lifting the 12-month core PCE rate to 3.0%. The advance GDP report included the data, which, together with sticky services inflation and outsized legal-services moves, reinforces expectations that the Federal Rese…
Retail sales in Canada declined 0.4% in December to $70.0 billion as shoppers pared back on large purchases during the holiday period. The drop was led by motor vehicle and parts dealers, while online sales advanced and full-year 2025 figures posted growth driven by automotive gains. Early estimates point to a rebound in January.
The Commerce Department's advance estimate showed U.S. gross domestic product rose at a 1.4% annualized rate in the fourth quarter, well below the 3.0% pace economists had expected. The shortfall reflects disruptions from a record 43-day government shutdown and a slowdown in consumer spending. Forecasters note that tax cuts and investment related t…
U.S. equity futures fell after Commerce Department data showed GDP growth slowed to a 1.4% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, below consensus, while the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge, the Personal Consumption Expenditure index, rose 0.4% in December. Core PCE also increased 0.4% month-over-month. Index futures traded lower in earl…
Minutes released from the February meeting of India’s six-member monetary policy committee show most members consider the current policy rate appropriate for the economy. Two external members signalled potential for easing at some point, but several policymakers said fresh GDP data and the transmission of past cuts will guide future decisions. The …
The European Union should be ready to implement its free trade agreement with the Mercosur bloc in the coming months, EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said, even as France leads domestic opposition and the European Parliament has lodged a legal challenge that could delay ratification. The accord, signed in January after 25 years of talks, would elimin…
U.S. stock index futures were largely unchanged on Friday as traders awaited a slate of economic releases - including preliminary fourth-quarter GDP and the Personal Consumption Expenditures index - that could shape expectations for monetary policy easing. Market participants also monitored tensions between Washington and Tehran, a potential U.S. S…
Morgan Stanley identifies the persistence of trade-driven volatility as the central question for U.S. growth in 2026. Analyst Michael Gapen argues that large swings in net trade were a defining feature of 2025 and that if those swings have abated, GDP will provide a clearer reading next year. The bank flags specific import categories - computers, p…
Global equity funds recorded their biggest weekly net inflow in five weeks during the seven days to February 18, receiving $36.33 billion as risk appetite broadened beyond artificial intelligence names and hopes for Federal Reserve rate cuts improved. European funds led regional flows while U.S. and Asian funds also drew substantial purchases. Bond…
BofA Securities economists expect the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates at its June and July 2026 meetings, even though they argue that underlying economic signals - including a falling unemployment rate and a recent uptick in the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge - do not support such moves. The projection comes amid debate over the policy st…
A Penn-Wharton Budget Model analysis estimates that more than $175 billion in tariff collections tied to duties imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) could have to be returned to importers if the U.S. Supreme Court rules those tariffs unlawful. The projection, created for Reuters, draws on detailed product- and count…
Global equity markets modestly advanced on Friday, with Europe and U.S. futures rising as investors largely weighed economic fundamentals above geopolitical jitters. The pan-European STOXX 600 gained 0.5% and was poised for its fourth straight week of gains, while S&P 500 futures added 0.4%. At the same time, oil rallied to its highest levels in ov…
Deutsche Bank has revised its view on European consumer staples from cautious to neutral, citing a firmer U.S. consumer, recovering sector earnings and comparatively low valuations versus U.S. peers and the broader Stoxx 600. Analysts expect modest earnings growth by 2026 and see several cyclical and policy-related drivers supporting demand.
Peru’s Congress removed President Jose Jeri just four months into his term and installed Jose Balcazar as interim president, yet financial markets moved little. Analysts say the country’s mining-centric economy and confidence in its central bank have kept investor sentiment resilient despite recurrent political turnover. The focus now shifts to the…
Preliminary S&P Global Purchasing Managers’ Index data for February show the UK composite PMI at 53.9, extending a rebound into a second month. The headline picture of modest growth masks sharp reductions in services-sector staffing tied in part to higher employer social security payments introduced in April 2025. Manufacturing activity strengthene…
ING expects the euro to gain ground versus the British pound in the near term, projecting EUR/GBP to exceed 0.880 amid anticipated Bank of England rate cuts and heightened domestic political risk. Strong January retail sales and an unexpected budget surplus did not prevent a drop in gilt yields or a weaker pound against the dollar.
A preliminary S&P Global HCOB composite PMI for the euro area rose to 51.9 in February from 51.3 in January, driven by a shift in manufacturing back into expansion. The services sector recorded only a slight improvement. Overall price pressures edged up, but companies raised selling prices only modestly, leaving little reason to change expectations…
U.S. equity futures ticked up as investors prepared for the release of December personal consumption expenditures inflation data and an advance estimate of fourth-quarter GDP. Market attention was divided between the incoming macro prints and a bout of unease in the private credit sector after Blue Owl Capital changed how it will process quarterly …
Indonesia and the United States have formalized a trade agreement that lowers U.S. tariffs on Indonesian goods to 19% from 32%, while exempting palm oil and several agricultural commodities from levies. The pact, signed in Washington by Indonesia's senior economic minister and the U.S. Trade Representative, includes provisions on textiles, product …
Britain's unemployment rate for 16-24-year-olds climbed to 16.1% in the final quarter of last year, a ten-year peak that has prompted debate over the government's pledge to eliminate reduced minimum pay rates for younger workers. Analysts point to sharp minimum wage rises, higher employer National Insurance charges and broader economic weakness as …
Traders entered the weekend on edge as heightened rhetoric between the United States and Iran combined with turbulence in listed private equity to push oil higher and lift the dollar. Major economic data and corporate earnings remain on the calendar, but political friction and the prospect of conflict commanded market focus.
UniSuper has raised its currency hedging of foreign holdings, arguing the Australian dollar is undervalued and likely to strengthen as the interest rate differential with the United States moves in Australia's favor. The decision reflects recent moves by the Reserve Bank of Australia and shifts in market rate expectations, and follows similar steps…
India’s private-sector activity accelerated in February, led by a notable pickup in manufacturing sales and output, while services expansion eased. HSBC’s flash Composite PMI, compiled by S&P Global, rose to 59.3 from 58.4 in January, supported by the fastest rise in total new orders since November and a marked increase in international sales. At t…
Advance estimates point to a slowdown in U.S. economic growth in the fourth quarter after two strong quarters, with the 43-day government shutdown and easing consumer outlays weighing on output. Forecasters expect GDP to have expanded at a roughly 3.0% annualized pace, supported by tax-cut related refunds and sizable AI-driven business investment t…
