Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,702 total articles
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said it is premature to determine how the war with Iran will shape U.S. inflation and economic growth. Speaking after remarks at a conference hosted by America's Credit Unions in Washington, Williams said the immediate transmission of the conflict's economic effects appears to be primarily through as…
The Federal Reserve's 2025 Small Business Credit Survey, compiled by the 12 regional Fed banks, found that rising costs related to tariffs, inflation and wages were the dominant challenge for U.S. small firms in 2025. Retail and manufacturing firms reported the greatest tariff-related pressure; most firms sourcing foreign inputs saw price increases…
Apollo Global Management CEO Marc Rowan warned that the private credit industry faces a lasting shakeout amid rising defaults on loans to software companies. He cited recent bank loan failures and investor withdrawals from business development companies as signs of broader strain. Major asset managers offering retail-facing private credit funds hav…
In a brief phone interview with Politico, President Donald Trump said Iran is running out of key weapons and launchers, and signaled willingness to engage with a reconstituted Iranian leadership if one emerges. His comments, which were not echoed in a recent Pentagon briefing, come amid ongoing drone and missile attacks in the region and confirmed …
A European Investment Bank survey of roughly 13,000 firms finds European companies have largely managed the effects of higher U.S. tariffs and kept pace with U.S. peers in adopting artificial intelligence, yet many struggle to sell across the EU because of inconsistent national regulations. The report quantifies the domestic obstacles and models po…
Jeff Schmid, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, said inflation remains too high and is nearly a percentage point above the Fed's 2% target. Speaking in Denver, he highlighted persistent inflation across tariff-affected goods and services, noted underlying inflation rose 3% in the 12 months through December, and flagged rising hea…
A European Investment Bank survey shows that EU firms have largely absorbed higher U.S. tariffs and matched U.S. peers in artificial intelligence adoption, but divergent national rules across the 27-member bloc are creating significant obstacles for intra-EU trade and constraining investment, particularly in intangible assets.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves presented a Spring Statement on March 3, 2026, that contained no major policy shifts and only a small improvement in fiscal headroom. Analysts warned that the modest buffer created by lower gilt yields and firmer equity prices could be eroded rapidly by rising energy costs and broader geopolitical uncertainty, leaving limit…
Kansas City Federal Reserve President Jeffrey Schmid reiterated his opposition to additional interest-rate reductions, arguing that the labor market is balanced while inflation remains above the central bank's target. He warned that demand is outstripping supply and that services prices are rising too quickly for a return to the Fed's 2% goal, and …
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said Tuesday that cuts to the federal funds rate would be appropriate if inflation slows after the primary effects of tariffs have passed. Williams laid out an expected trajectory for inflation and described recent signs of stability in the labor market, while noting that tariffs are likely t…
U.S. officials say President Trump is considering backing Iranian groups willing to use force against the Tehran government. He has held direct talks with Kurdish leaders based in Iran and remains in contact with other local figures, while White House officials say no final decision has been made on providing weapons, training or intelligence.
New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said monetary policy is appropriately positioned to help stabilize the labor market and guide inflation back to the Fed's 2% objective, and that additional federal funds rate reductions would be justified if inflation follows his expected path. Williams delivered his remarks to a conference hosted by…
Markets pared back expectations that the Federal Reserve will begin trimming interest rates before September after air strikes linked to the U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran lifted oil prices and provoked heavy selling in rate-sensitive assets. With the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and global crude flows curtailed, traders have reduced the…
In a budget update to parliament, finance minister Rachel Reeves set out revised forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility that show Britain's inflation and borrowing will be lower than previously expected by the fiscal watchdog, while economic growth forecasts for the near term were reduced. The update, delivered against a backdrop of Mi…
Finance minister Rachel Reeves set out a revised, weaker growth path for the U.K. in a budget update, with the Office for Budget Responsibility cutting its 2026 GDP forecast and projecting a higher unemployment peak. The OBR attributed labour market weakness to new entrants struggling to find work, and warned of persistent weak demand as output fal…
In a budget update delivered to parliament, finance minister Rachel Reeves pledged to shield the UK economy from external shocks and maintain policy stability. New official forecasts from Britain’s fiscal watchdog show lower inflation and borrowing than previously estimated, though growth for the year was revised down to 1.1% from 1.4%. The fiscal …
Finance minister Rachel Reeves said the government’s margin for meeting its principal fiscal objective at the end of the decade has increased to 23.6 billion pounds for 2029/30, up from an almost 22 billion pound estimate in November. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s forecasts underpin the change, but they were compiled before a recent spike …
President Donald Trump declared that the United States has a near limitless inventory of munitions and can wage wars "forever" using existing supplies, comments made as U.S. and Israeli military operations in Iran entered their fourth day. Trump gave few operational details but said the campaign was projected to last four to five weeks and that cur…
The Office for Budget Responsibility has reduced its projected UK GDP growth for 2026 to 1.1%, Finance Minister Rachel Reeves said in a half-yearly fiscal update. The OBR's profile now shows slightly slower expansion in 2026 with stronger growth of 1.6% pencilled in for both 2027 and 2028 and 1.5% for 2029 and 2030.
Traders have reduced their expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year after a spike in energy prices tied to widening U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran raised the prospect of higher inflation. Futures indicate a sharply lower probability of a June cut, a rising chance of a July move, and only modest easing priced in by year-end. Federal Res…
Government bond markets across Europe, the United States and Britain plunged after an escalation of the Middle East conflict disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and lifted oil and gas prices. Short-dated, rate-sensitive notes fell most sharply, forcing traders to reduce expectations of imminent rate cuts by the Bank of England and the F…
Rosatom, Russia's state nuclear corporation, has announced plans to evacuate as many as 200 employees from the Bushehr nuclear power plant in Iran after explosions were reported just kilometers from the facility's protective perimeter. The company says roughly 700 Russian specialists are assigned to Bushehr and that about 100 non-essential staff ha…
A study published by European Central Bank economists concludes that the spread of stablecoins across the euro area could erode the central bank's ability to shape financial conditions, draw deposits away from traditional banks and reduce the supply of credit to the real economy. While stablecoins remain small relative to euro-area deposits, the pa…
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov told visiting Brunei officials in Moscow that Russia has not observed proof of an Iranian nuclear weapons program, repeating Moscow's demand for an immediate end to military hostilities amid reported regional fallout from the U.S. and Israeli operations against Tehran.
BCA Research advises investors to avoid fading the recent rise in oil prices or rushing back into equities, characterizing the Iran-related geopolitical shock as ongoing and likely to have larger economic consequences. The firm assigns a high weighted probability to a substantial oil supply shock and is maintaining defensive positioning, including …
