Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,692 total articles
Bank of Canada policy is expected to remain unchanged at 2.25% through 2026, according to BofA Securities economist Carlos Capistran. Recent military activity in Iran and the resulting jump in oil prices have introduced upside risks for Canadian growth and inflation, complicating the central bank’s decision-making even as core inflation trends down…
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission has initiated a public comment period as it prepares a regulatory proposal for events contracts and prediction markets. The notice highlights concerns about market manipulation, margin trading and whether certain types of wagers - such as those tied to terrorism or military action - should be banned in …
Singapore's ministry of trade and industry said it will engage with the Office of the United States Trade Representative to obtain further clarification on trade data and details of a Section 301 investigation. The ministry disputed USTR figures that characterized Singapore as having a $27 billion surplus with the U.S. in 2024, saying instead the c…
The administration intends to grant 30-day exemptions to the Jones Act, allowing foreign-flagged tankers to move fuel between U.S. ports. The temporary measure is aimed at bolstering East Coast supply by permitting deliveries from the Gulf Coast and other domestic locations, part of a broader set of options being reviewed to address rising oil and …
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission's Division of Market Oversight released an advisory aimed at operators listing event contracts in prediction markets. The guidance reiterates legal obligations for designated contract markets under the Commodity Exchange Act and Commission regulations, highlights specific references including CEA section 5(d…
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has issued an Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking to collect public input on potential regulatory changes for event contracts traded on prediction markets. The notice asks stakeholders to weigh in on how core statutory principles and Commission rules should apply, which types of contracts might be contrar…
Brazil's 12-month inflation rate eased to 3.81% in February, the lowest reading since April 2024, while monthly consumer prices rose 0.70%. The data arrives days before the central bank's March 17-18 policy meeting and complicates deliberations over whether to begin interest-rate cuts and whether the move should be 25 or 50 basis points amid recent…
Economists surveyed in the Reuters March 6-12 poll largely expect the Federal Reserve to begin easing policy in June, despite a sharp rise in global oil prices tied to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran that has pushed short-term yields higher and shifted market expectations for the first cut. All respondents foresee the Fed holding its policy range at 3…
Goldman Sachs moved its projected first U.S. interest-rate reduction in 2026 from June to September after rising oil prices linked to the Middle East conflict stoked inflation worries. Ahead of the escalation, many brokerages were forecasting a June cut, but forecasts now range from multiple cuts beginning midyear to no cuts at all, with one firm c…
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei said the Strait of Hormuz should remain closed in his first public statement since assuming power after his father’s assassination, signaling intent to continue a blockade and intensify pressure on regional actors and U.S. bases. The comments, broadcast on state television, included calls for large d…
A poll of economists this week finds the Bank of England likely to delay a rate cut previously expected in March, instead trimming Bank Rate to 3.50% in either April or June. Surging energy costs tied to the Middle East conflict have elevated inflation risks, pushed up gilt yields and left market participants split on the timing and scale of easing…
Canada recorded a larger-than-expected merchandise trade deficit in January as exports fell more steeply than imports. A pronounced drop in motor vehicle and parts shipments, along with weaker metal and non-metallic mineral product exports, drove the fall. Higher energy exports partly mitigated the decline but were not enough to prevent the deficit…
German 10-year government bond yields climbed toward levels not seen since October 2023 as investors increased expectations for European Central Bank rate hikes. The move was driven by inflation concerns related to conflict in the Middle East and a rise in oil prices amid fears of disruptions to flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Goldman Sachs raised its U.S. inflation projections for December 2026 and cut its 2026 GDP growth forecast after revising oil-price assumptions higher amid the war with Iran. The bank now expects Brent to average $98 in March and April before easing to $71 by late 2026, and warns that sustained oil-price increases and geopolitical uncertainty could…
The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey left its policy stance unchanged, relying on prior adjustments to its interest rate corridor to deliver an effective 300 basis points of monetary tightening. The bank suspended one-week repo auctions, raising the marginal funding cost for commercial lenders to the overnight lending facility at 40%, a move …
The European Commission urged the United States to regard the European Union as an ally in confronting global manufacturing overcapacity, after the U.S. administration initiated investigations into unfair trade practices involving the EU and 15 other trading partners. Brussels said it shares Washington's concerns about structural overcapacity but d…
Andrew Bailey, chair of the Financial Stability Board and governor of the Bank of England, called on governments to accelerate reforms to international and domestic payment systems. Speaking at an FSB payments summit, he cautioned that persistent frictions in cross-border payments risk fragmenting the global financial system and undermining growth …
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said military operations involving Iran are expected to take weeks rather than months and outlined a Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) swap to ease near-term market pressures. Wright described a release of 172 million barrels from the SPR in exchange for 200 million barrels to be returned within a year, and indica…
The European Commission pushed back against assertions that the bloc fuels global manufacturing overcapacity after the United States initiated probes into unfair trade practices that include the EU among 16 trading partners. A Commission spokesperson said the EU shares concerns about structural excess capacity but rejects being the source of the pr…
India's consumer price inflation rose to 3.21% year-on-year in February, supported by higher costs for food, personal care items and sharp gains in silver and gold. The rate remains below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target and inside its 2%-6% tolerance band, but rising crude oil due to the Middle East conflict and strains in cooking fuel supply…
Bank of America analysts expect the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye to leave its policy rate unchanged at 37% at the Monetary Policy Council meeting. The forecast comes as foreign exchange reserves have fallen by about $21 billion through Monday, excluding gold valuation effects, and as oil price dynamics tied to Middle East tensions pose a…
British exports of goods to the United States declined 10.3% to £59.2 billion last year after a series of tariffs were introduced by Washington. Most product groups recorded lower values, with notable decreases in cars, clothing, footwear and works of art. Analysts warn additional US tariffs could push trade flows down further.
Swissmem, the Swiss industry group, rejected U.S. assertions that Switzerland sought to build artificial industrial overcapacity. The group said the accusation is unfounded, pointed to the absence of import tariffs on industrial goods, and urged the Swiss government to continue tariff negotiations with the United States while defending Swiss manufa…
European Commission competition chief Teresa Ribera said EU governments may be allowed to deploy state aid to support energy-intensive companies facing sharply higher electricity costs after oil and gas prices rose in the wake of the Iran war. Ribera also confirmed the Commission is assessing a recent policy change by Meta affecting third-party AI …
Bank of America says higher global oil prices are improving Brazil's current account and terms of trade, boosting fiscal receipts via royalties, taxes and dividends. The bank cautions these windfalls are uneven and volatile, and domestic inflation would rise only if Petrobras adjusts local fuel prices. BofA keeps its forecast for a 50 basis point S…
