Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,636 total articles
BCA’s chief geopolitical strategist Matt Gertken argues that recent strikes on tankers and the deployment of a third U.S. aircraft carrier undermine hopes for a rapid ceasefire. Markets face two paths - temporary de-escalation if Strait of Hormuz traffic recovers, or a more damaging escalation if U.S. political incentives shift after the midterm ou…
President Donald Trump has tabled a fiscal year 2027 budget blueprint that would reduce non-defense discretionary spending by 10% and significantly expand defense funding to $1.5 trillion. The plan proposes a $500 billion uplift in defense outlays, targeted investments across military programs and shipbuilding, pay raises for service members, and h…
U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 in March after a large downward revision to February, pushing the unemployment rate down to 4.3%. The rebound coincided with the end of a healthcare workers strike and warmer temperatures, but economists warn that the war with Iran, higher fuel costs, tariffs, and immigration enforcement measures are creat…
Nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000 in March, well above the median economist estimate of 65,000, while the unemployment rate edged down to 4.3%. Revisions reduced February payrolls and trimmed prior months by a net 7,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% month over month and 3.5% year over year, below forecasts.
Financial markets entered April reeling after U.S. President Donald Trump dashed expectations of a rapid end to the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, triggering a fresh surge in oil prices and forcing investors to reassess growth, inflation and policy trajectories. With OPEC+ meeting, U.S. inflation data and multiple central bank decisions on the ca…
A CMA CGM-operated container vessel with French ownership transited the Strait of Hormuz eastbound, the first Western-linked vessel to do so since the Iran war began in late February. The Maltese-flagged Kribi navigated the sanctioned corridor between Qeshm and Larak islands after weeks of inactivity in the Gulf, reflecting a cautious resumption of…
Markets are contending with conflicting signals about the trajectory of the month-old Middle East war and its knock-on effects for oil, inflation and corporate profits. With crude surging and gasoline prices at multi-year highs, investors are focused on next week’s March consumer price index, Federal Reserve minutes and the opening of quarterly ear…
Russia's state receipts from oil and gas fell by 43% in March to 617 billion roubles ($7.72 billion) versus March of last year, the finance ministry reported. The ministry attributed the decline to lower crude prices and an appreciating rouble. The receipts are a significant component of government revenue, representing roughly one quarter of total…
U.S. job creation is expected to have edged higher in March, helped by the return of striking healthcare workers and milder weather, reversing a steep February drop. Economists warn, however, that the month-long conflict in the Middle East, recent trade-policy turbulence and historically weak labor supply growth pose growing risks to the labor mark…
A senior Bank of Japan official said the central bank will press on with interest-rate increases while closely monitoring how the Middle East conflict affects Japan's economy and core inflation. Rising fuel costs from the conflict could dent growth by worsening terms of trade, but may also lift underlying inflation through higher long-term expectat…
In a late Thursday post on Truth Social, U.S. President Donald Trump warned that U.S. military action against Iran could expand to include bridges and electric power plants. His comments come after recent U.S. strikes on Iranian infrastructure and follow prior threats to target Iran's energy grid if certain geopolitical demands were not met. Offici…
Japan’s finance minister has warned that speculative activity in foreign exchange and crude oil futures markets has pushed volatility markedly higher. With the yen trading close to the psychologically significant 160-per-dollar level, the government says it is prepared to take comprehensive action to protect the public’s livelihoods and the broader…
China's private-sector services activity expanded in March but at a slower pace than February, according to the RatingDog China General Services PMI compiled by S&P Global. The index fell to 52.1 from 56.7, remaining above the 50 threshold for expansion. Softer domestic demand and a decline in new export orders weighed on growth, while cost pressur…
Global markets weakened on Thursday as President Donald Trump signaled no immediate de-escalation in the conflict with Iran, keeping the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed and pushing U.S. oil prices sharply higher. Equity markets were mixed-to-lower across Asia and Europe while some S&P 500 sectors rose. Private credit drew fresh scrutiny after a…
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams told Fox Business that the Fed’s monetary policy is "well positioned" to manage increased uncertainty stemming from surging energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict. Williams said higher energy costs could lift inflation and damp consumer spending, but that those effects tend to take mo…
The administration announced sweeping tariffs on patented pharmaceutical products and ingredients under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. A 100% levy applies broadly, with phased implementation, country-specific lower rates, and exemptions for firms that sign pricing and onshoring agreements. Generics and biosimilars are currently exc…
The administration signed a proclamation to revise Section 232 tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, moving to a full-value basis and establishing tiered rates of 50%, 25%, 15%, and 10% depending on metal content and origin. The changes coincide with expanding U.S. metal production and new domestic smelting and steelmaking capacity.
Dallas Federal Reserve President Lorie Logan said U.S. oil producers are unlikely to boost crude output in the near term because firms require sustained prices near their breakeven level to invest. With market crude around $110 a barrel and producer breakevens just under $70, Logan warned there is no indication of a quick supply response to ease ga…
Federal Reserve policymakers left short-term interest rates unchanged at their March 17-18 meeting, repeating the stance they took in January. The committee’s median projection remains for a single quarter-point cut by the end of 2026, but Fed Chair Jerome Powell warned that uncertainty around the Iran conflict and a spike in oil prices has made th…
President Donald Trump has removed Pam Bondi from her role as U.S. attorney general, confirming the decision on Truth Social and saying Bondi will move to a private-sector post to be announced later. Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche will serve as acting attorney general. Reports say Trump discussed replacing Bondi with EPA administrator Lee Zel…
President Donald Trump removed Attorney General Pam Bondi on April 2, the White House said, after mounting dissatisfaction with her stewardship of Justice Department matters, notably the handling and disclosure of investigative material connected to the late financier Jeffrey Epstein. Bondi's tenure was marked by aggressive alignment with the presi…
Chime Financial Inc. reported a 25% month-over-month increase in fuel spending by its customers in March compared with February. CEO Chris Britt said overall consumer spending and savings remained steady, but higher fuel costs are putting pressure on household budgets after US attacks on Iran lifted oil markets and pushed gasoline above $4 a gallon…
European Central Bank policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau said the next ECB move on interest rates will very likely be an increase, but he cautioned it is too early to set a timetable for hikes. He noted that a recent spike in energy prices has rapidly pushed up headline inflation in the euro zone and France, while underlying inflation remains …
Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday, found the average 30-year fixed mortgage at 6.46% and the 15-year fixed at 5.77%. Both rates rose modestly from the prior week, while remaining below or near year-ago levels. Freddie Mac’s chief economist encouraged prospective buyers to obtain multiple quotes to potentially save thou…
Iran is working with Oman on a protocol to oversee vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran’s deputy foreign minister said. The measure is described as intended to improve safety and services for ships rather than to restrict navigation. The announcement follows international debate over how to reopen the waterway after Tehran effectiv…
