Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,672 total articles
A UBS analysis by Chief Economist Paul Donovan argues that the U.S. dollar’s long-held dominance in oil markets is under structural pressure. Changes in Gulf import sourcing and potential shifts in military procurement are reducing the practical need for producers to hold dollars, while higher oil revenues tied to regional instability are creating …
The U.S. Department of Defense has moved to formalize Palantir Technologies' Maven AI system as an official program of record, a shift intended to standardize the platform's adoption across military services and create a more stable funding path. The software, described as a digital mission control platform, has been used in recent combat operation…
JPMorgan strategists outline several liquidity backstops supporting the roughly $2 trillion private credit market as redemption requests rise and asset repricing intensifies. The bank highlights record opportunistic cash in secondary funds, sizeable unutilized lending commitments and a shift toward dollar-hedged and decentralised trading venues as …
A federal judge recently voided Department of Justice subpoenas tied to building renovation cost overruns and testimony by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, finding they were issued for an "improper purpose." The ruling has intensified a legal standoff between the Fed and the DOJ at a pivotal moment for leadership succession: Powell's term as ch…
President Donald Trump indicated the United States is approaching the conclusion of its high-intensity military campaign against Iran, detailing a five-point framework for ending what he called 'Operation Epic Fury.' The announcement, posted on Truth Social, asserted that U.S. forces had achieved key objectives against Tehran's missile and defense …
Dario Durigan, sworn in as Brazil’s finance minister, said he will maintain the economic direction set by his predecessor Fernando Haddad, prioritizing the efficiency of public finances and improvements to the credit model. Durigan also called for a stronger Treasury presence in international debt markets and signalled possible sovereign bond issua…
President Donald Trump said on Friday that Israel may be willing to end its warfare with Iran once U.S. military operations conclude. He described U.S. and Israeli goals as largely aligned, expressed openness to dialogue with Iran while rejecting a ceasefire, commented on the role of other nations in the Strait of Hormuz, and suggested U.S. strikes…
Government bond yields in the United States and across Europe surged as investors grew more worried that a war-driven global energy shock will keep inflation elevated. The rise in oil prices and reports of additional U.S. troop deployments to the Middle East prompted traders to scale back expectations for near-term policy easing by major central ba…
A three-week escalation of hostilities involving Iran has driven crude oil sharply higher and become the dominant concern for investors, weighing on equity markets, pushing up Treasury yields and complicating central bank forecasts. With U.S. crude at $100 and Brent near $110, fears of higher inflation and slower growth are prompting markets to par…
The Russell 2000 has dropped 10% from its January record high and is poised to register a technical correction after renewed inflation concerns tied to the Middle East conflict pushed investors to pare back bets on near-term U.S. rate cuts. The move highlights the sensitivity of small-cap stocks to higher borrowing costs and growth uncertainty.
Market-implied odds for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest-rate increase by September sit near 75%, and traders now assign better-than-even chances of a move as soon as July. This marks a swift reversal from expectations earlier this month and last month, when markets and many Fed officials anticipated rate cuts. The change followed an escalation of t…
U.S. defense leaders have developed detailed plans to position ground forces in Iran if ordered, submitting requests and conducting meetings to prepare for detainee handling and deployment logistics. The White House emphasized that planning does not equate to a decision, while movements of Marine expeditionary forces and elements of the 82nd Airbor…
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that rising energy costs could spark broader inflationary pressures across Europe and said the European Central Bank must tighten policy if those 'second-round' effects materialize. The ECB held rates steady while lifting inflation forecasts and flagging growing price risks tied to the U.S.-Israeli war on I…
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel cautioned that a sharp rise in energy prices could spread inflation across Europe and that the European Central Bank should tighten policy if that leads to so-called second-round effects or lifts longer-term inflation expectations above target. The ECB left interest rates unchanged this week but upgraded its infla…
Iranian authorities have grown increasingly unwilling to engage on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, prioritizing survival amid ongoing military strikes, according to people directly involved in high-level contacts with Tehran. Recent attacks on energy infrastructure and strikes on Iranian officials, including the killing of security chief Ali Larija…
Money markets have increased the likelihood of a Bank of Canada rate hike next month to over 20% and now price a total of 75 basis points of tightening by the end of the year. The shift follows geopolitical escalation after strikes on Iran on February 28, higher oil and LNG prices, and supply concerns for fertilizers that have revived inflation and…
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas' researchers estimate that a Strait of Hormuz closure through June tied to the Iran war would cut annualized global growth by 2.9 percentage points in the second quarter. Their models trace how oil prices and GDP trajectories change if the chokepoint reopens after one quarter or remains closed for longer periods.
Brazil’s newly appointed finance minister, Dario Durigan, is recalibrating the ministry’s messaging and pausing contentious tax initiatives - including a public consultation on crypto taxation and a proposal to end exemptions on certain investment securities - while the country heads into a presidential election later this year, sources say. Duriga…
Two people familiar with private talks say Russian envoy Kirill Dmitriev proposed a reciprocal intelligence pause: Moscow would stop transmitting precise U.S. military positions in the Middle East to Iran if the United States stopped passing intelligence about Russia to Ukraine. The offer, delivered to envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner in Miam…
President Donald Trump on Friday publicly rebuked NATO allies for declining to participate in a U.S.-Israel military operation aimed at countering Iran, calling them "cowards" in a post on Truth Social. Several Western and allied governments issued a joint pledge to help secure passage through the Strait of Hormuz but said combat operations would n…
The U.S. Justice Department is conducting a criminal investigation into Colombian President Gustavo Petro over possible ties to drug traffickers, according to a recent report. At least two U.S. federal prosecutor's offices are involved, with investigators probing whether Petro met with traffickers and whether his 2022 presidential campaign accepted…
Brazil's cash reserves that reassure investors about the government's capacity to roll over debt have contracted as the Treasury increases market interventions to steady trading during a global market selloff. The liquidity cushion declined to 6.77 months in January from 9.33 months in September, remaining above the Treasury's three-month comfort t…
SoftBank Group is preparing to develop a major AI computing campus on federally owned land in Ohio, to be powered by an estimated $33 billion of natural gas-fired generating capacity and supported by $30-$40 billion in computing equipment. The planned facility is designed to draw about 10 gigawatts of power; turbines totaling 9.2 GW have been sourc…
U.S. defense officials report that the Pentagon is dispatching three warships and roughly 2,200 to 2,500 Marines to U.S. Central Command in the Middle East, marking a second significant Marine deployment within a week. The move follows President Trump's public statement that he does not intend to send American ground forces into Iran and comes as t…
Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the Fed has commissioned an external review of the events that produced Silicon Valley Bank's abrupt 2023 collapse. Bowman described the episode as a failure of supervision and bank management, and reiterated her push to refocus examiners on core financial risks while restructuring ban…
