Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,656 total articles
A new interim report from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development finds that the conflict in Iran has produced an energy price shock that is increasing inflationary pressure and adding significant uncertainty to the global economic outlook. The OECD warns that disruptions to oil and natural gas flows, especially through the Strai…
New filings for U.S. unemployment benefits inched higher last week, a modest move that underscores a labor market holding steady. At the same time, inflation pressures linked to conflict in the Middle East have pushed up energy and input prices, complicating the Federal Reserve’s outlook and leaving policymakers room to maintain current interest ra…
Economists surveyed in late March anticipate the Federal Reserve will keep the federal funds rate unchanged through the summer and only consider trimming policy in September, even as financial markets increasingly rule out cuts this year and factor in a non-negligible chance of a rate hike amid a worsening Middle East conflict and higher oil prices…
A narrow majority of economists surveyed expect the Bank of England to keep Bank Rate at 3.75% through the remainder of the year, reversing forecasts for near-term cuts. While energy-driven inflation risks from the U.S. and Israeli conflict with Iran have forced many forecasters to lift inflation and year-end rate projections, most economists do no…
Iceland's consumer price inflation accelerated to 5.4% in March, the highest year-on-year reading since September 2024, driven by higher crude oil prices linked to conflict-related shipping disruptions. The central bank has already increased rates once and signaled a probable additional quarter-point hike at its next meeting on May 20.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development lowered its projection for UK GDP growth in 2026 to 0.7% from 1.2%, the largest downgrade among G20 economies in its interim outlook. The revision reflects the effect of disrupted energy supplies and higher commodity prices tied to the US-Israel war with Iran. Inflation in the UK is seen ac…
Bank of England Deputy Governor Sarah Breeden told a London audience that the risk of a wage-price feedback loop stemming from the Iran War appears reduced, citing a loosening labour market and subdued economic activity that curb bargaining power for both firms and workers. She said policymakers remain vigilant, noting risks operate on both sides a…
Surveys published this week show consumers in Germany, France and Italy turning more pessimistic amid rising fuel prices linked to the conflict in the Middle East. Analysts warn that higher petrol costs are only the first wave of pressure on household budgets, with disrupted fertilizer flows and potential food-price increases still to come. At the …
The European Parliament voted to advance legislation enacting the European Union's trade commitments with the United States, with 417 in favor, 154 against and 71 abstentions. The package would remove EU import duties on U.S. industrial goods, broaden market access for American agricultural products and continue a zero-duty regime on U.S. lobsters.…
Asian policymakers moved quickly to shore up confidence as the regional fallout from the U.S.-Israel war on Iran pushed global oil prices higher. South Korea announced a 5 trillion won emergency bond repurchase program and fuel measures to cap local price impacts, while the Philippines convened an unscheduled policy meeting that left its key rate a…
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said the immediate financial fallout from the joint U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran has been contained so far, citing limited direct bank exposures and strong capital and liquidity positions. He warned, however, that a wider spread or longer duration of the conflict and a prolonged energy shock c…
The OECD reports that the recent escalation of hostilities in the Middle East has removed an anticipated upgrade to global growth and risks driving up inflation, as near-stoppage of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz pushes energy prices higher. Global growth is now forecast to slow to 2.9% in 2026 before a modest pickup to 3.0% in 2027, whi…
The OECD's interim update cuts the United Kingdom's 2026 growth estimate by 0.5 percentage points to 0.7%, the largest downgrade among major economies in the report, while raising the 2026 inflation forecast to 4.0%. The body cites higher energy prices tied to the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran and planned fiscal tightening as central factors keeping gro…
A retired senior U.S. naval officer told a client event that the current confrontation with Iran could last far longer than early forecasts, highlighting implications for U.S. strategic focus, defense spending and procurement priorities. He pointed to long-standing diplomatic severance, regional entrenchment, potential supplemental funding requests…
The Trump administration is moving to assert greater control over the Federal Reserve's regulatory and supervisory functions, seeking influence over rule-writing and examiner guidance that followed the 2008 crisis. Officials and former staff describe efforts by the White House and Treasury to press the Fed on submissions for White House review, acc…
U.S. stock index futures fell Thursday as investors remained cautious over mixed messages about a possible de-escalation in the Middle East. Comments from U.S. and Iranian officials left markets unsure whether a diplomatic path will restore safe shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. The oil price surge has reignited inflation worries, prompting mo…
U.S. equity futures moved lower as market participants digested a flurry of reports about possible negotiations to end the conflict with Iran. Oil traded back above $100 a barrel, underpinning a firmer U.S. dollar and pressuring gold. Separately, Jefferies reported first-quarter losses tied to loans to failed firms, even as investment banking activ…
Seisaku Kameda, the Bank of Japan's former top economist, said the central bank is likely to raise interest rates by June in response to escalating oil prices linked to the Iran war. Kameda argues that the oil shock compounds an environment of steadily rising prices and wages and that prolonged delay in tightening risks allowing inflation to become…
New York State Comptroller Tom DiNapoli estimated that Wall Street bonus payments climbed 9% to a record $49.2 billion in 2025, lifting the average bonus to $246,900. The securities industry posted profits of $65.1 billion, up more than 30%, while preliminary employment figures show a slight decline in headcount to 198,200 from 201,500 in 2024. The…
European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos said the euro area banking system has limited direct exposure to the U.S. and Israeli war on Iran and remains well capitalised and liquid. However, he warned that interconnected vulnerabilities across markets could produce systemic stress if the conflict drives a sharp repricing of risk, particul…
European stocks retreated on March 26 as investors weighed the prospect of an ECB rate increase in April and continued uncertainty over the Middle East conflict. The STOXX 600 declined 0.6% to 583.8 by 0809 GMT, while short-term bond yields climbed and interest-rate futures priced a greater than 68% chance of a hike. Elevated crude prices and confl…
China's banking regulator has discussed relaxing long-standing limits on major shareholders in commercial banks, people with direct knowledge said, as lenders confront slowing economic activity and property-sector strain. The proposed changes would permit certain investors to increase sizeable stakes in additional banks, subject to regulator approv…
ECB policymaker Joachim Nagel said the European Central Bank could decide to raise interest rates at its April 29-30 meeting if the war in the Middle East triggers a broader inflation surge. Nagel, who leads Germany's Bundesbank, said officials will evaluate incoming data on the conflict's economic impact, energy-driven price pressures and any sign…
The Bank of Japan has launched a new consumer price gauge that removes specified institutional factors and energy-related interventions, reporting a 2.2% year-on-year rise for core CPI excluding those special factors in February. The move, disclosed alongside plans to update staff estimates of the neutral interest rate, is intended to sharpen commu…
Markets opened the day tentative after conflicting statements from Iran and the U.S. about a possible ceasefire in the Gulf. The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical channel for oil and LNG, has prompted energy shortages and higher prices, pressuring equities and bonds and driving demand for the dollar as a haven.
