Macroeconomic data, trends, and policy developments.
Coverage of key economic indicators, central bank policy decisions, inflation trends, labor data, and growth signals. This category focuses on the macroeconomic forces that shape markets, interest rates, and long-term capital allocation.
2,640 total articles
Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said the twin shocks of the U.S. war with Iran and the rapid deployment of artificial intelligence technologies have increased uncertainty around the central bank's outlook, making it appropriate to keep interest rates on hold. Barkin warned that an oil-price shock from the Iran conflict and AI-drive…
Bank of America strategists say markets are now factoring in a more hawkish Federal Reserve response to inflation risks stemming from an energy shock tied to the Iran war. The repricing shows up in a recent divergence between the rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury yield and West Texas Intermediate crude, and has largely erased expectations for rate cut…
Representatives of the European Union and members of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership met on the sidelines of the WTO ministerial in Cameroon and said the World Trade Organisation is at a "critical juncture". They urged urgent, deep, comprehensive and inclusive reform of the WTO and pledged to enhance cooper…
The Indian government said on Friday it will borrow 8.2 trillion rupees ($86.5 billion) in the first half of the financial year beginning April 1, roughly half of the amount scheduled for the entire 12-month period. Authorities also reduced the gross borrowing target for the year and cut plans for ultra-long dated securities, a move that could limi…
A U.S. federal appeals court on Friday overturned a $16.1 billion judgment tied to Argentina's 2012 nationalization of YPF SA, ruling that a Manhattan judge erred in deciding for former shareholders. The lawsuit had backing from litigation funder Burford Capital Ltd., which had stood to receive a significant share of any award. The decision elimina…
Two Hong Kong-flagged container ships operated by China’s COSCO attempted to leave the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz but turned back shortly after beginning the transit, ship-tracking data shows. The incident occurred despite a statement from Iran saying it had allowed passage for friendly nations including China. The move was the first recorde…
Former Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro, 71, was discharged from a Brasilia hospital and moved to his residence to begin a 90-day period of so-called humanitarian house arrest approved by a Supreme Court justice. Bolsonaro has been serving a 27-year sentence since November for plotting a coup after his 2022 election defeat. He was treated in inte…
The first quarter has closed on a turbulent note as global financial markets absorbed a severe geopolitical shock in the Middle East alongside large moves in energy prices and interest rates. An estimated $7 trillion was wiped from global equity markets, oil posted one of its largest quarterly gains of the century, European gas prices nearly double…
Morgan Stanley warned that rising crude costs tied to the Middle East conflict could move from primarily lifting inflation to damaging economic growth if price gains become sharp enough. Analysts led by Michael Gapen say the bank is watching retail sales excluding gasoline, upcoming March payroll data, business confidence measures and inflation-lin…
Marcopolo is leaning on international markets to make up for a softer outlook at home in 2026, boosting exports across Latin America and preparing a push into European markets. International operations accounted for nearly half of the company's net revenue in 2025, and executives say they are seeing momentum in multiple neighboring countries while …
Early economic effects from the Iran war are surfacing in Britain, with surging gas prices and downgrades to growth and inflation forecasts constraining both monetary and fiscal policymakers. The combination of higher energy costs, falling consumer confidence, and limited fiscal headroom raises difficult trade-offs for the Bank of England and the g…
The Bank of Spain estimates first-quarter GDP rose between 0.5% and 0.6%, a deceleration from 0.8% in Q4. It raised its baseline growth forecast for 2026 to 2.3% from 2.2%, factoring in the economic effects of the war in Iran. The central bank also adjusted inflation and public finance projections while noting that energy price and external market …
China’s commerce minister told the European Union’s trade commissioner that Beijing is prepared to increase imports from the 27-member bloc and urged the EU to relax controls on high-tech exports and avoid politicising trade relations, according to a statement from China’s commerce ministry. The exchange took place on the sidelines of a World Trade…
The Philippines and China convened formal talks on their South China Sea dispute in Quanzhou for the first time in over a year, holding two bilateral meetings to pursue candid exchanges and examine cooperation in non-sensitive areas. The sessions followed signals from Manila about potential collaboration on a joint oil and gas project and requests …
U.S. stock index futures showed little momentum on March 27 as investors weighed a further delay in planned strikes on Iran’s energy infrastructure. President Donald Trump extended a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, after Tehran rejected a 15-point U.S. proposal to end hostilities. The pause did not calm markets: oil prices rose, g…
UK house prices are projected to rise modestly in 2026 as easing monetary policy and nominal wage growth improve affordability. Mortgage rates have come down from their 2022 peaks and lenders are repricing in anticipation of further Bank of England cuts, but weak economic indicators, higher energy costs and policy changes for landlords create short…
Next week’s U.S. employment report will be the focal point for investors already grappling with the market effects of a widening conflict in the Middle East. Surging oil and gasoline prices, rising Treasury yields and mixed corporate earnings have combined to push equity valuations lower and keep markets volatile as the first quarter ends.
Fulton County will ask a federal judge to order the return of original 2020 ballots and other materials that FBI agents removed during a January 28 search of the county's election center in Union City, Georgia. County lawyers argue the seizure - which included more than 600 boxes of election material - was constitutionally improper and relied on al…
Israel and Iran exchanged new air strikes while reports indicate the United States is weighing a major increase in ground forces to the Middle East. President Trump extended a White House deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to April 6, saying Tehran requested the extension and that talks are ongoing, a claim Tehran denies. Oil prices h…
Global equity funds recorded their biggest weekly net inflow in nearly 2-1/2 months in the week through March 25, driven by hopes of a temporary easing in Middle East tensions after a White House decision to delay strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Net purchases were concentrated in U.S. and Asian equity funds, while European equity funds sa…
UBS economists have updated their outlook for European Central Bank policy, forecasting two 25 basis point hikes that would raise the deposit rate to 2.5% - one on June 11 and a second in September. The change follows a more hawkish tone in the ECB's March staff projections, which revised inflation materially higher while trimming GDP growth only m…
U.S. equity futures traded close to unchanged after the White House extended a deadline for strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure to April 6. President Trump said Tehran requested the delay and that talks are ongoing, but clashes across the Middle East have persisted and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. Brent crude rose further w…
A European Central Bank Consumer Expectations Survey released March 27 shows euro-area households lowered their median inflation expectations for the next 12 months and the following three years to 2.5% from 2.6% in the previous month, while expectations five years ahead held at 2.3%. The ECB noted that 97% of responses were collected before the st…
The close of the first quarter has left global markets reeling from geopolitically driven shocks. A war involving Iran and a U.S. ultimatum over the Strait of Hormuz has coincided with record energy price swings, a steep drawdown in equities, surging input costs and heightened volatility across assets. Investors will now face a dense calendar - fro…
The Bank of England has restructured the Discount Window Facility (DWF) pricing, setting fixed spreads above Bank Rate by collateral tier and lowering charges across the board. The move is intended to make the DWF a more usable, on-demand liquidity option for firms facing short-term settlement gaps, while preserving incentives for prudent liquidity…
