Chinese bank lending appears to have rebounded strongly in March, driven by the typical post-holiday pickup in activity and a rise in credit demand, according to a recent poll of economists. The average estimate from 17 economists in the poll put net new yuan lending at roughly 3.4 trillion yuan in March, a sharp increase from about 900 billion yuan recorded in February.
March is generally a robust month for loan issuance as banks resume lending after the Chinese New Year lull and step up credit flows to meet first-quarter objectives. The poll indicated this seasonal pattern likely contributed materially to the monthly jump in new lending.
Despite the projected increase, expected lending for March remains below the 3.64 trillion yuan of net new loans issued in March 2025, according to poll respondents. Market commentary in the poll highlighted that credit demand appears steady rather than strongly accelerating. Citi Research noted that "bills discounting rate has been moving sideways throughout March, indicating steady but not really strong credit demand."
Other macro-financial indicators in the poll painted a mixed picture of credit and liquidity. Broad money, measured by M2, was expected to have expanded 8.9% year-on-year in March, a touch slower than February's 9.0% pace. Growth in outstanding yuan loans was estimated at 5.9% year-on-year in March, edging down from 6.0% the previous month.
Total social financing - a comprehensive gauge of credit and liquidity in the economy - was projected to more than double month-on-month, rising to about 5.4 trillion yuan in March from 2.38 trillion yuan in February. That sizable monthly jump in this broader financing measure accompanied the poll's higher estimate for new loan issuance.
Policy signals from the central bank and major investment banks were also referenced in the poll. The Chinese central bank has pledged to boost financial support for domestic demand, innovation and small businesses, while indicating it does not expect to implement a broad-based rate cut in the near term. Reflecting a cautious view on easing, Goldman Sachs recently dropped its call for a 10 basis-point policy rate cut this year, saying the central bank would only ease policy "if the growth outlook deteriorates significantly."
The poll included the exchange rate used in reporting: $1 = 6.8327 Chinese yuan renminbi.
Notes on the data used in this report
The lending, money supply, outstanding loan and total social financing estimates above are based on the average responses from 17 economists participating in the referenced poll. Where specific qualitative judgments are cited, they reflect the commentary contained in the poll responses.