France's government will not tighten its 2026 deficit goal at this stage, the budget minister said on Wednesday, citing both the temporary nature of some recent budget improvements and the uncertain economic fallout from the Iran conflict.
Budget Minister David Amiel told the senate's finance committee that the country's public deficit narrowed more than expected last year, falling to 5.1% of GDP in 2025 from 5.8% in 2024. He said part of that improvement reflected one-off elements and therefore did not provide sufficient basis to adopt a more ambitious reduction target for 2026.
Amiel stressed the role of geopolitical uncertainty in the decision. "We obviously want to do better than the 5% target in budget documents if the economic situation allows," he said. "But at this stage of the year, and given the uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East, we haven’t revised the target."
Ministers plan to update their economic and financial forecasts on April 21, when they will present their fiscal plans to the European Union, providing a formal opportunity to reassess targets and assumptions.
Speaking alongside Amiel, Economy and Finance Minister Roland Lescure said it is still too early to determine how the conflict will influence economic activity. He did not provide further detail on potential channels of impact, reflecting the limited visibility policymakers currently have.
The government's position combines recognition of last year's stronger-than-expected deficit improvement with caution about its persistence and about external risks. Officials are awaiting the scheduled April forecast update before making any formal revisions to the 2026 objective.
Contextual note: Officials attribute part of the 2025 deficit reduction to one-off factors and are treating the geopolitical situation in the Middle East as a material source of uncertainty for 2026 projections. The April 21 update will be the next formal milestone for revised economic and fiscal numbers.