Senior financial policymakers are meeting in Washington this week for the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Group Spring Meetings as fresh global turmoil - centred on the Iran war - adds pressure to fragile emerging market recoveries.
The current shock, which comes amid rising borrowing costs, higher energy prices and heightened inflation prospects, threatens to complicate the path to stability for nations that had only recently started to recover from previous crises. Countries frequently flagged for attention include Ukraine, Senegal, Mozambique, Gabon, Egypt and Venezuela, while commentators note that other vulnerable economies such as Sri Lanka and Pakistan also face elevated risks.
Ukraine
Ukraine is highly dependent on IMF support. In February it agreed a two-year programme with the Fund worth $8.1 billion. One external constraint to maintaining that financing appears to have eased following the election ouster of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, an outcome market participants expect will remove a hurdle to the disbursement of 90 billion euros in European Union funding to Kyiv - funding that was a precondition for the IMF programme.
Domestically, Ukraine still confronts a demanding reform agenda. Policymakers must pursue measures including higher revenue mobilisation, stronger anti-corruption steps and greater exchange rate flexibility to keep the IMF arrangement on track. Roger Mark at asset manager Ninety One summed up the situation: "The key question domestically is if we see more, and we do need to see more, efforts by the Ukrainians to pass these pieces of reform, and they seem like they’re going there."
Senegal
The economic outlook for Senegal remains uncertain after the discovery of billions in previously undisclosed debt prompted the IMF to halt a $1.8 billion loan programme in 2024. Talks on a replacement or revised arrangement are continuing, but resolving the country’s debt burden would likely require a protracted and difficult fiscal consolidation - a politically sensitive prospect for authorities in Dakar.
JPMorgan analysts noted that without a large fiscal effort the Fund could request some form of debt treatment, an option that Senegalese authorities have firmly rejected. The analysts added that negotiations between Dakar and the IMF are expected to continue and characterised their base case for a new IMF arrangement as challenging, with a muddle-through outcome also possible.
Mozambique
Mozambique has been in discussions with the IMF since mid-2025 on a potential new lending programme. The government has indicated a desire to restructure its debt but has not provided specifics. In a notable development, the country repaid dues to the IMF early in March, a move interpreted by some observers as an effort to strengthen its case for fresh financing.
Christian Franken at Oxford Economics said the payment was "a bold attempt to acquire further credit from the IMF," and added: "Indeed, we expect such a loan agreement to be finalised in Q2 2026."
Gabon
Gabon formally requested an IMF programme in March to underpin a domestic reform agenda. Years of political instability have left the Central African country, the second-largest economy in the CEMAC region, strained and grappling with dwindling foreign exchange reserves. Fund staff and Gabonese officials are expected to continue talks on the programme’s scope and conditions during the Spring Meetings.
Egypt
Over the past two years Egypt has unlocked substantial IMF funding and attracted foreign direct investment from Gulf countries. Nonetheless, the country’s heavy reliance on energy imports, remittances from the Gulf Cooperation Council and tourism income makes it vulnerable to spillovers from the Iran war. Some market participants expect Cairo to seek an augmentation of its IMF package, which currently comprises an $8 billion Extended Fund Facility and a $1.3 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility.
The IMF is scheduled to review Egypt’s programme ahead of the next tranche of financing in June, but analysts warn that the review could be delayed into later in the year.
Venezuela
Venezuela holds $5 billion in special drawing rights at the IMF that have been frozen since 2021 because its government was not recognised by a majority of IMF board members - a status that has not changed under President Delcy Rodriguez. The Fund has begun consultations on the issue, a process that could alter the current status.
Engagement with multilateral lenders had been hindered by a period of incomplete macroeconomic reporting, often described as a data blackout, but that restriction appears to be easing. Caracas has released batches of macroeconomic data in recent weeks. Some analysts view those releases as a potential prelude to a formal IMF mission visiting Caracas in the coming months.
The Spring Meetings will provide a forum for the Fund, lenders and country authorities to assess near-term financing needs and the policy steps required to secure or maintain programmes. With global borrowing costs, energy prices and inflation risks elevated, the negotiating environment for loan terms and debt treatment will be more challenging for countries already managing legacies of past shocks.
As delegations convene in Washington, the spotlight on these emerging economies will centre on whether reform commitments, fiscal adjustments and external financing can be aligned to preserve macroeconomic stability in an increasingly adverse global context.