Overview
Large U.S. banks are poised to deliver improved quarterly profits on the back of robust interest income and stronger investment banking fees, analysts say. Investors will be watching closely for forward guidance as geopolitical developments tied to Iran add to broader macro uncertainty.
Earnings schedule and market backdrop
Goldman Sachs will open the bank earnings reporting period on Monday. JPMorgan Chase, the largest U.S. lender, will report on Tuesday alongside Wells Fargo and Citigroup. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are scheduled to report on Wednesday, April 15. These results cover the three months ended March 31, a period marked by swings in global markets as investors weighed wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, volatile oil prices and other geopolitical risks.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that he had agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran, less than two hours before a deadline he had set for Tehran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz or face widespread attacks on its civilian infrastructure. The development underscored the potential for rapid shifts in the geopolitical environment that can influence markets.
Dealmaking and fee drivers
Despite the unsettled backdrop, the first quarter saw a surge in large corporate transactions as many companies moved to secure deals before financing conditions changed. LSEG data show nearly two dozen mega deals valued above $10 billion were announced globally in the quarter, along with 40 transactions worth more than $5 billion. Jefferies analysts pointed to global M&A proxy fees of $11.3 billion in the first quarter, led by Goldman.
That burst of deal activity and associated trading helped lift fee revenue at major banks, supporting expectations for higher quarterly results.
Investor focus: outlook and loan growth
With headline results expected to show strength, investor attention is expected to shift to management commentary on the outlook for 2026 loan growth, particularly in commercial and industrial (C&I) and commercial real estate portfolios. Gerard Cassidy, an analyst at RBC Capital Markets, said Federal Reserve data suggest C&I growth accelerated in the first quarter, but noted that a prolonged conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices could act as a drag on future loan growth.
David George, a banking analyst at Baird, said in a note that trading volumes could benefit from recent geopolitical risk while investment banking, mortgage and wealth businesses are likely to be softer until conflict dynamics are resolved.
JPMorgan Chase Chief Executive Jamie Dimon cautioned in a shareholder letter that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran risks oil and commodity price shocks that could keep inflation sticky and push interest rates higher than the market expects. That warning highlights the ways in which geopolitical events can feed back into inflation and interest rate trajectories, which in turn shape banks' net interest income and lending outlooks.
Executives' pre-reporting comments
- JPMorgan - In February the bank said it expects investment banking fees and markets revenue to record strong growth in the first quarter, helping to address concerns that a recent equity market selloff had dented deal pipelines.
- Bank of America - Co-President Dean Athanasia said on March 10 that the bank expects interest income to grow at least 7% and investment banking fees to climb 10% in the first quarter.
- Citigroup - CEO Jane Fraser said in March the bank expects mid-teens percentage growth in its investment banking fees and markets revenue in the first quarter, with strong activity in both divisions despite escalating global tensions.
- Wells Fargo - Chief Financial Officer Mike Santomassimo said in February the lender expects loans to grow this year, with bets on credit cards and autos while mortgage momentum is expected to pick up.
- Goldman Sachs - CEO David Solomon said in March he expects mergers and acquisitions activity to accelerate in 2026 despite disruption from the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran.
- Morgan Stanley - Chief Financial Officer Sharon Yeshaya said in January the bank was seeing an accelerating pipeline in M&A and initial public offerings, with deal flow in healthcare and industrials.
Analyst estimates
Analyst averages compiled by LSEG offer targeted expectations for the group. The following block reproduces the estimates as provided by those averages:
Bank Q1 2026 Q1 Q1 NII Q1 EPS EPS profit growth 2025 estimate growth estimate estimate JPMorgan $5.44 7.18% 8.54% $5.07 Bank of $1.01 6.33% 7.05% $0.90 America Citigroup $2.64 24% 10.67% $1.96 Wells $1.58 11.38% 6.89% $1.39 Fargo Goldman $16.39 9.98% - $14.12 Sachs Morgan $3.00 12.45% 8.44% $2.60 Stanley Sources: Average analyst estimates compiled by LSEG, company results
What investors will watch
Beyond reported top-line numbers, conference calls will likely center on managements' views of the economic outlook, potential credit trends in commercial and real estate portfolios, and how ongoing geopolitical developments could influence trading, investment banking pipelines and net interest income. Analysts and investors will assess whether recent fee and markets strength is durable and how loan growth might evolve across business segments through 2026.
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Sources: Average analyst estimates compiled by LSEG, company results.