Foreign exchange markets and global currency movements.
Coverage of currency markets including major pairs, central bank actions, interest-rate differentials, and geopolitical influences. This section highlights trends in FX markets that impact global trade, inflation, and cross-asset correlations.
312 total articles
Bank of America adjusted its Thai baht forecast, anticipating a near-term weakening to 33 per U.S. dollar by mid-2026 followed by a recovery to 31 per dollar by the end of 2026. The revision reflects the combined effects of an oil price shock and an elevated Thai nominal effective exchange rate after post-election equity inflows, which has increase…
Most Asian currencies traded in tight ranges as renewed strength in oil prices, driven by ongoing hostilities related to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran, kept risk sentiment subdued. The Australian dollar outperformed peers slightly as traders positioned for a likely Reserve Bank of Australia rate increase. Attention now turns to a sequence of c…
Bank of America cautions that this week’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting is unlikely to materially change the dollar’s trajectory given the absence of anticipated policy moves. The bank says rising geopolitically-driven uncertainty and oil price pressure are the primary forces keeping the dollar supported, with currency moves likely to be he…
The Indian rupee sank to a fresh record low as investors reacted to higher crude prices and mounting worries about potential interruptions to oil and gas flows following Iran's effective blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The currency's decline reflects India's heavy reliance on imported energy and the prospect of higher import bills weighing on the…
Most Asian currencies traded in a narrow range as persistent uncertainty over hostilities involving Iran and cautious positioning ahead of a Federal Reserve meeting supported the U.S. dollar near multi-month highs. The Australian dollar outperformed peers ahead of a Reserve Bank of Australia meeting where a rate increase is widely anticipated. Chin…
A Bank of America FX and rates sentiment survey conducted March 6-11 among 39 global fund managers overseeing $632 billion shows a pronounced rebound in U.S. dollar positioning as geopolitical tensions and rising risk-off sentiment weigh on conviction across markets. Emerging market currencies have lost ground in both sentiment and positioning, whi…
The U.S. dollar maintained gains on Friday and is set for a second weekly increase since the onset of the Iran conflict, buoyed by safe-haven flows and the United States' status as a net energy exporter. The euro hovered near multi-month lows, the yen traded at levels that revive intervention concerns in Japan, and oil market disruptions prompted e…
ING warns that currency markets have become overly hawkish on Bank of England policy, with EUR/GBP closely tied to oil prices. Market pricing has driven two-year sterling swap rates up 50 basis points since the Iran-related conflict began, and ING says further sterling strength would be stretched unless traders start to price in a BoE rate rise. UB…
UBS strategists reaffirm a cautious stance on the British pound, projecting EUR/GBP at 0.89 by end-Q2 and GBP/USD at 1.31, citing the economic and financial risks stemming from the ongoing Middle East conflict. Recent front-end rate moves have temporarily supported sterling, but persistent energy disruptions, higher gilt yields and potential govern…
Asian currencies weakened broadly as ongoing hostilities involving the U.S., Israel, and Iran propelled oil prices higher and heightened concerns about energy-related economic disruptions. The dollar strengthened in Asian trading on safe-haven flows and growing bets on more persistent inflation, while upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data is in focus fo…
EUR/GBP has weakened roughly 1.5% since the onset of the Iranian conflict, driven by a hawkish repricing in sterling yields and the relative strength of equity markets. ING says the fall looks extended on short-term valuation measures and that oil trading under $90 could prompt a dovish reassessment of UK rate expectations, supporting a bounce in t…
Since the Iran conflict began, the Singapore dollar has depreciated far less versus the US dollar than the Asia-Pacific average, supported by Singapore's robust fiscal position and the Monetary Authority of Singapore's (MAS) emphasis on exchange-rate management to curb inflation. UBS strategists highlight the MAS's willingness to let the currency a…
Most Asian currencies traded in narrow ranges as markets balanced conflicting signals over the U.S.-Israel war with Iran and awaited U.S. CPI data for February. The Australian dollar rallied to its strongest level since mid-2022 on growing expectations the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise interest rates next week. The Japanese yen underperforme…
Goldman Sachs recommends short positions in EUR/CHF as an effective hedge against inflation risks emanating from higher oil prices, citing the Swiss National Bank's hawkish stance and the franc's relative insulation versus other G10 currencies. The bank suggests options strategies to capture downside in EUR/CHF, while viewing USD/CHF as a less reli…
Bank of America’s quantitative models signal further U.S. dollar gains as option-market positioning, technical trend indicators and cross-asset regime analysis point to continued demand for the dollar as a relative safe haven. The bank also highlights the Canadian dollar as a notable opportunity while noting uneven investor conviction across time z…
The pound has strengthened after markets adjusted expectations for Bank of England policy in response to recent oil market volatility, according to ING. With UK inflation already above the BoE's 3% target and hawkish policymakers present at the central bank, sterling’s yield curve has seen significant repricing. The persistence of the energy shock …
Most Asian currencies traded under pressure as persistent uncertainty over the conflict involving Iran kept the dollar supported. The Chinese yuan bucked the regional trend, firming significantly after January-February trade data surprised to the upside. Mixed signals on prospects for deescalation and fresh economic revisions in Japan also shaped f…
A small group of university students held a prolonged sit-in at the University of Havana, protesting repeated class disruptions linked to sharp reductions in fuel supplies that have left Cuba’s power grid close to collapse. Students demanded better measures from officials after January cuts to Venezuelan oil shipments and tighter U.S. sanctions str…
The Canadian dollar rose Monday morning as global oil benchmarks moved above $100 per barrel after several countries announced additional production cuts amid a near blockage of the Strait of Hormuz. The USD/CAD pair declined 0.3% to 1.3534 by 7:48 a.m. Toronto time, setting the stage for its lowest close since February 11, 2026. Market commentary …
The British pound has strengthened against the dollar over the past month despite domestic economic challenges, with Bank of America attributing the move to shifts in terms of trade, portfolio positioning and energy-sector flows rather than a sudden improvement in underlying fundamentals. Analysts note a break in the historical relationship between…
Bank of America warns that sustained high crude prices, combined with a divergence between the Bank of Japan's wait-and-see approach and the tightening tendencies of the Federal Reserve and some European central banks, is weighing on the Japanese yen. The research note highlights Japan's reliance on Middle Eastern crude, political pressure for stim…
Asian exchange rates fell broadly Monday as the dollar climbed to a three-month peak amid a surge in oil prices following an escalation in hostilities involving Iran and strikes on regional oil infrastructure. The Chinese yuan weakened despite consumer inflation printing at its strongest pace in three years, supported by elevated holiday spending. …
UBS recommends selling upside exposure in the EUR/ZAR pair above 20.50 over a one-month horizon, citing heightened implied volatility and a set of supportive factors underpinning the South African rand. The bank notes the currency's resilience is driven by precious metal gains, favorable yield differentials, attractive valuation and structural refo…
Bank of America has recommended a tactical buy on the euro versus the Norwegian krone, citing crowded short positioning in the pair and a view that Norway's interest-rate outlook could shift. The bank's metrics show EUR/NOK short exposure is high based on a one-year volatility lookback, and its base case assumes no prolonged conflict involving Iran…
UBS has advised taking a long position in the Australian dollar versus the U.S. dollar at 0.6990, setting a profit target at 0.75 and a stop-loss at 0.68. The bank says the recent depreciation in AUD/USD - linked to heightened risk-aversion - creates an entry point. UBS points to widening short-term interest rate differentials between Australia and…
