Commodities April 5, 2026

Trump Sets Deadline for Reopening Strait of Hormuz, Warns of Devastating Strikes; Claims Rescue of Downed Airman

Amid sustained U.S.-Israeli strikes and cross-border attacks, Tehran's effective closure of the vital waterway escalates regional energy and security risks

By Avery Klein
Trump Sets Deadline for Reopening Strait of Hormuz, Warns of Devastating Strikes; Claims Rescue of Downed Airman

President Donald Trump issued an ultimatum demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by his Tuesday deadline, warning of severe strikes on Iranian infrastructure if it did not comply. The announcement came as U.S. and Israeli forces continued air and missile operations against Iran, Tehran expanded attacks on Gulf energy targets, explosions were reported in Tehran, and a high-risk U.S. special forces mission extracted an American weapons officer from deep inside Iran.

Key Points

  • President Trump issued an ultimatum demanding Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Tuesday, warning of major strikes on Iranian energy and transport infrastructure if it did not comply - impacts energy and defense sectors.
  • U.S. and Israeli air and missile strikes have been carried out for more than five weeks to target Iran's alleged nuclear weapons programme, ballistic missile arsenal and proxy militia support - impacts military operations and geopolitical risk.
  • Tehran has expanded cross-border drone and missile strikes on petrochemical facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE, and reported striking an Israeli-linked vessel at Dubai's Jebel Ali port - impacts regional energy production, shipping and insurance markets.

President Donald Trump warned that Tehran would face severe retaliation if it failed to reach a deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz by his Tuesday deadline, while simultaneously lauding U.S. special operations forces for rescuing an American airman from inside Iran.

U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran has continued for more than five weeks, with officials saying strikes were aimed at dismantling what they described as an imminent threat stemming from Iran's nuclear weapon development programme, its ballistic missile stockpile and its backing for regional proxy militias. In response, Iran has effectively closed the Hormuz waterway - a passage that carries around a fifth of the world's oil and natural gas - and has launched attacks on U.S. military bases and other targets across the Gulf.

Explosions were reported in Tehran on Monday morning, and an official told Iranian state media that a U.S.-Israeli strike on a residential building south of the city had killed at least 13 people. That account could not be independently verified.

On his Truth Social platform, Mr. Trump posted an expletive-laden message threatening further strikes on Iranian energy and transport infrastructure that critics say would amount to war crimes. He wrote: "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran," and added: "There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin Strait, you crazy bastards, or youll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP"

At the same time that message was posted, Mr. Trump told Fox News that Iran was negotiating and that a deal could be possible by Monday. Later, Axios reported that U.S., Iranian and regional mediators have been discussing terms for a potential 45-day ceasefire that could lead to a permanent end to the war, citing four U.S., Israeli and regional sources with knowledge of the talks. That report could not be immediately verified.

The White House and the U.S. State Department did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The mediators were described as negotiating a two-phased arrangement: an initial 45-day ceasefire followed by talks aimed at reaching a final agreement to end the war.

Iranian leaders publicly condemned Mr. Trump's threats. Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, speaker of Iran's parliament, said Mr. Trump was being misled by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and sharply criticised the U.S. posture. "Your reckless moves are dragging the United States into a living HELL for every single family, and our whole region is going to burn because you insist on following Netanyahus commands," he posted on X.

Despite sustained U.S.-Israeli strikes, Tehran has continued to attack Gulf energy infrastructure. Iranian forces launched drone and missile strikes on petrochemical facilities in Kuwait, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said it struck an Israeli-linked vessel at Dubais Jebel Ali port.

In Kuwait, drone strikes ignited fires and inflicted what the state oil firm Kuwait Petroleum Corporation described as "severe material damage" at petrochemical plants operated by its affiliates. The series of strikes highlighted Iran's capacity to mount cross-border operations that disrupt energy facilities and maritime hubs across several Gulf states.

Israel also continued to experience strikes. Media footage showed search-and-rescue teams working through debris in the northern city of Haifa after an Iranian missile struck a residential building. Israeli paramedics said nine people were being treated, and later reports said rescue crews had recovered two people dead from the rubble.


Separately, Mr. Trump announced the nighttime rescue of an American airman, calling the operation "one of the most daring" missions of its kind in U.S. history. The airman, identified as the weapons officer of an F-15 shot down on Friday, was wounded but, according to Mr. Trump, "will be just fine." The jets pilot had been rescued earlier.

U.S. commandos moved under cover of darkness deep into Iranian territory, undetected, scaled a roughly 7,000-foot (2,100-metre) ridge and reached the stranded weapons specialist, bringing him to safety before dawn on Sunday. Two MC-130 aircraft that had transported some of the roughly 100 special operations personnel into the rugged terrain south of Tehran experienced mechanical failure and could not take off, a U.S. official said.

Commanders then ordered additional aircraft to fly into Iran to extract forces in waves, a high-risk choice that allowed the rescue force to be evacuated in stages. U.S. troops destroyed the disabled MC-130s and four additional helicopters inside Iran rather than risk leaving sensitive equipment behind. Iran reported that several U.S. aircraft were destroyed during the operation.

The wider conflict began with U.S. and Israeli air strikes across Iran on February 28. The campaign has resulted in thousands of deaths, primarily in Iran and Lebanon. Lebanese authorities said Israeli airstrikes killed another 11 people on Sunday, according to the Lebanese health ministry.


As the diplomatic and military actions continue, markets and energy sectors face pronounced uncertainty given the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and repeated attacks on regional petrochemical and maritime infrastructure. Negotiations that may be underway between the United States, Iran and regional intermediaries were reported to contemplate a two-stage settlement process, though such discussions remain unverified and unconfirmed by U.S. officials.

The coming days were framed by competing signals: an ultimatum and threats of infrastructure strikes from Washington, reports of potential negotiations toward a temporary ceasefire, and ongoing Iranian attacks across multiple Gulf states. That mix of escalatory rhetoric and unconfirmed mediation efforts leaves the trajectory of the conflict uncertain.

Risks

  • Closure of the Strait of Hormuz and continued attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure risk supply disruptions and price volatility in global oil and gas markets - sector affected: energy.
  • Escalatory threats and strikes on infrastructure risk broader military retaliation and further civilian casualties, prolonging regional instability - sectors affected: defense and insurance.
  • Uncertainty around reported mediation talks and unverified reports of a possible 45-day ceasefire create unclear near-term trajectories for markets and diplomatic outcomes - sectors affected: commodities and financial markets.

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