Markets in the United States and around the world began the week in a wait-and-see mode as traders tracked a presidential deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz - set for 8 p.m. EDT tonight - and weighed the potential market consequences.
Tehran has declined to reopen the strategic shipping lane or to accept a short-term ceasefire, despite warnings from the U.S. president that Iran could be "taken out in one night". That rhetoric has left investors monitoring the situation for signs that the latest deadline could lead either to further escalation or to a deferral of confrontation into another deadline.
Energy markets were especially sensitive. Brent crude initially rose above $111 per barrel in early trading before trimming gains, while U.S. WTI briefly topped $116 per barrel and was trading around $113 per barrel after those intraday moves. The early volatility in oil prices reflected investor caution about potential disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Equity markets opened tentatively. Major Asian indexes were largely flat, even after a positive reaction early in the session to a record-breaking quarterly operating profit estimate from the worlds largest memory chipmaker. European shares climbed after the open, while major U.S. indexes posted gains on Monday, buoyed in part by reports of ongoing discussions around a possible ceasefire.
That optimism cooled after Tehran rejected the proposed short-term truce, although mediation efforts by Pakistan were reported to be continuing. U.S. stock futures were roughly flat ahead of the U.S. session.
Currency markets reflected a mix of influences. The dollar eased slightly but remained relatively firm, with the dollar index trading just under the 100 level after reaching its highest level since May 2025 last week. The Japanese yen remained weak, hovering near the 160-per-dollar mark.
Macro data from the United States added another layer of complexity. A survey from the Institute for Supply Management released on Monday indicated that U.S. services sector growth slowed in March, while the prices paid component rose by the most in over 13 years. Those survey details were interpreted as early signs of mounting inflation pressures amid the conflict-related energy shock.
Market participants are also awaiting the U.S. March consumer price index reading, scheduled for release this Friday, which will provide more direct evidence on inflation trends. In the meantime, the International Monetary Fund cautioned that the global economic outlook is deteriorating. The IMF head said on Monday that "all roads" lead to higher prices and slower growth, underscoring the broader macroeconomic risk environment.
Amid the geopolitical and macroeconomic noise, corporate news supplied a striking datapoint. The world's largest memory chipmaker announced an estimated operating profit of 57.2 trillion won for the January to March period, equivalent to $37.92 billion, well above the LSEG SmartEstimate of 40.6 trillion won and a more than eightfold increase from 6.69 trillion won a year earlier. That result provided a boost to sentiment in technology-related markets early in the session.
Several scheduled events will be watched for market-moving information. U.S. February durable goods figures are due at 8:30 a.m. EDT, a U.S. 3-year note auction is set for 1:00 p.m. EDT, and speeches from Fed Governor Philip Jefferson, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly are on the calendar. Together, these data points and commentaries will feed into investor assessments of interest rate trajectories and economic resilience.
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In the days ahead, the central question for markets will remain whether the presidential deadline prompts escalation or de-escalation in the region. For now, traders are balancing the immediate geopolitical risk, early signs of higher input prices in the U.S. services sector, and a large, unexpected profit beat from a major memory chipmaker that highlights divergences across sectors.