Overview
Goldman Sachs has drawn three principal lessons from the 2022 energy shock that it says are useful for understanding the consequences of the 2026 Middle East war. The bank frames these takeaways around which economies were most affected by the 2022 disruptions, which energy sources benefited from a pivot toward security, and which fuels saw renewed demand as buyers sought affordability and availability.
Lesson 1 - Exposure of lower-income economies
The bank's first point highlights that lower-income countries are disproportionately vulnerable when global energy markets tighten. In 2022 Europe moved to replace roughly 40% of its gas supply after cutting Russian deliveries, and that scramble for liquefied natural gas (LNG) triggered a worldwide price rally. Those higher LNG prices effectively excluded less wealthy buyers from the market.
Goldman Sachs points to Bangladesh and Pakistan as the nations that recorded the steepest declines in LNG's share of their overall energy demand. By contrast, the European Union, Japan and South Korea were able to sustain or raise their LNG intake by paying record prices. The bank's assessment underscores how a rapid price spike can reallocate scarce supplies toward buyers with greater ability to pay.
Lesson 2 - Solar as a security-focused choice
The second lesson emphasizes that energy security concerns tend to push policy toward more localized supply, and that solar power has been the primary beneficiary of that preference. Goldman Sachs notes that China had already been moving in this direction before 2022, choosing to shift from coal to renewables rather than toward natural gas, and that an overhang of panel capacity supported falling costs.
Analysts, including Hongcen Wei, said: "We expect the Middle East conflict to incentivize economies to further prioritize security of energy supply toward more localized energy sources like solar power. This trend would be consistent with our bullish views on the structural solar surge and global power demand." The statement links security-driven procurement to stronger structural demand for solar.
Lesson 3 - Coal's rebound in parts of Asia
The third lesson runs counter to the shift away from coal among wealthier economies. Goldman Sachs reports that several South and Southeast Asian countries - specifically Bangladesh, Pakistan and Vietnam - moved from natural gas to coal after 2022, viewing the latter as a cheaper and more accessible option. The bank's analysts wrote: "Lacking the rapid renewable ramp-ups, these countries have prioritized energy security through coal, which remains more affordable and accessible via domestic production or regional trade."
Current context and trade flows
The analysts also noted that a ceasefire that took effect earlier this week could help normalize energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz. At the same time, they warned that the conflict had already driven notable year-over-year falls in oil and LNG imports across most major importers for March 2026, with Pakistan, China and India registering particularly sharp drops in gas shipments.
These observations from Goldman Sachs aim to map how price dynamics, security concerns and local fuel availability interact to reshape energy demand patterns in the short and medium term.