Overview
Goldman Sachs has adjusted down its 2026 copper price forecast to an average of $12,650 per tonne, a reduction from its prior $12,850 estimate, reflecting softer demand assumptions against a backdrop of weaker global economic growth. Despite this near-term downward revision, the bank maintained an upbeat long-term view of copper driven by electrification trends.
Revised market balance and demand assumptions
The bank now expects the global refined copper market to record a surplus of 490,000 tonnes this year, up from its earlier projection of a 380,000-tonne surplus. This change follows Goldman's decision to cut its forecast for global refined copper demand growth to 1.6% year-on-year from the previous 2% estimate.
Goldman attributed part of the weaker demand outlook to the bank's macroeconomic assessment. Its economists estimate that an energy price shock associated with disruptions in the Middle East will shave about 0.4 percentage points off global GDP growth, a factor that has fed into the lower demand growth projection for copper.
How copper differs from aluminium
The analysts, led by Aurelia Waltham, noted that the downward demand revision applied to copper is smaller than the adjustment they made for aluminium. They explained that copper's growing structural and strategic importance in the global economy makes its demand less sensitive to short-term economic cycles. In their words, "This is a smaller demand revision than aluminium because of the increasingly strategic and structural nature of copper demand, making it less sensitive to global economic cycles."
Near-term price dynamics and base-case path
Goldman cautioned that copper is likely to remain volatile in the near term but suggested prices could find support if market and logistical conditions stabilise. Under the bank's base case - which assumes energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz begin recovering from mid-April - Goldman projects copper will average $12,700 in the second quarter of 2026 before easing toward a fair value estimate of $12,000 in the second half of the year.
Valuation risks and potential for further declines
The bank flagged a notable valuation risk: even after a price correction in March, copper continues to trade well above Goldman's 2026 fair value estimate of roughly $11,100. That gap leaves the market "vulnerable to another move lower should the economic outlook deteriorate and investors de-risk," according to the analysts.
Supply-side considerations tied to the Middle East
Goldman also emphasized that its forecasts do not incorporate the potential for supply disruptions stemming from Middle East tensions. It pointed to the Democratic Republic of the Congo as an example of how such disruptions could affect production - the DRC relies on sulfur shipped through the Strait of Hormuz for an important production process and accounts for about 15% of global copper mine output.
Industry feedback cited by the bank indicates DRC producers may hold up to three months of sulfuric acid inventory. Goldman interpreted this to mean a brief interruption in flows would likely have limited immediate impact on supply, but a prolonged disruption could tighten the market and reduce the surplus the bank currently expects.
Long-term outlook
Beyond the near-term revisions, Goldman left its long-run forecast unchanged and continues to project copper prices rising to $15,000 by 2035. The bank argued that tensions in the Middle East are likely to reinforce the broader electrification theme, noting that grid and energy infrastructure account for 60% of the copper demand growth in its projections through 2030.
Implications for markets and sectors
The bank's revisions touch on both demand and supply dimensions and carry implications for commodity markets, industrial users of copper, and investors in metal markets. A larger-than-expected surplus and prices trading above fundamental fair value raise the prospect of near-term price corrections, while the long-term electrification story remains intact according to Goldman.